Click the button below to see what my opinion on the Aussie dollar pair for the near future is. 🙂
Hello, this is my analysis of the AUDUSD pair, please do not take it as an absolute truth but rather as an insight into your analysis.
We have started the month with the fundamental idea for the price to trade into the daily order block in the 0.743 area, which would nicely align with our sweet spot retracement in a monthly uptrend.
We can clearly see, that the price has reached our entry zone and retraced. There are still two more weeks in this monthly candle, but my best guess is if they close above the 0.74 monthly important level, then we can see some potential bullish moves.
Above is the analysis of the monthly timeframe, so we’re looking very long-time trade here, but if it goes well, we can look for a few months of bearish bias.
Now on the weekly (above) we still see strong bearish momentum, I wouldn’t go for in quite yet, because we need more confirmation, for example if next week closes bullish engulfing then there is a strong possibility of a bullish continuation, but as always we never trade from the higher timeframes, we used them for a top-down analysis of our directional bias.
The daily timeframe (above) we can see how nicely the price has reacted to the bullish order block there, I must say this pair is a great pair to trade. Usually, they respect the order flow. I’m looking in this pair a healthy daily close above the 0.74 monthly key level, the second thing I want to see it break that trendline, once that trend line gets broken with a strong closing around 0.755, then we can look for long setups, will probably be a retracement down to 0.745 area before continuation, but if we catch that move we can expect an excellent swing trade with a potential of roughly 500 pips.
May 16, 2017
Updating this analysis with fresh chart
Above we see the H4 chart of the pair, as you can see they did, in fact, go bullish and closed above the monthly key level. They also tested the level at the equilibrium zone and continued in bullish bias. The setup still holds.
May 18, 2017
Today we saw an event called a stop hunt in the price movement of this pair. First I thought it was a shift in trend, but now I see that it continues in a bullish bias. After that stop-hunt, I’m even more convinced of the success of that setup.
May 21, 2017
As predicted the week (above) closed in a strong bullish engulfing candle indicating another bullish week. We are still 2 weeks into the monthly candle to close. I think 0.74 monthly key level will be retested again this week (might not be the case since it has done it so many times last week).
On the daily chart (above) we can see a strong Friday close just below the trend line. We need to see a break of the trend line and a strong close above it. So far the analysis is holding.
May 24, 2017
As predicted price broke through the trendline indicating bullish continuation. On the daily below you can see that it broke the price, closed above it, next day retested the trendline, rejected it and again closed in a strong bullish manner.
I think it’s safe to say that we can expect bullish momentum up to the weekly key level. At first, however, we will see some consolidation at the 200EMA.
May 25, 2017
(Daily above) A strong rejection at the 200EMA, currently engulfed candle, however, we still have around 9 hours to go, I don’t think they will close engulfed, but even if they do, we can expect a retracement on the daily to the 62 fib level before continuation.
If you are in the channel or in the group you can see that we comment every movement the price makes because the market leaves us clues. Let’s see how the weekly closes.
June 4, 2017
The analysis is still holding, for a month right now, below you can see the daily picture, as it was closed on the June 2nd after NFP.
We can see that the daily closed bullish engulfment which indicates further bullish momentum. I believe the 0.74 area of monthly resistance will be retested again and if we see a rejection there we will have stronger confirmation of bullish continuation. Last days bearish movement was just a correction as they came exactly to our fibonacci sweet spot.
June 5th, 2017
As predicted above, the buy setup was successful, we can see on the daily a strong bullish candle. I expect some rejection at the critical zone but it should break through.
This month has only just started and it already engulfed the whole may. May candle closed above the 0.74 level as predicted above on this blog post. If you remember I wrote, that if they close above 0.74 we will probably see a bullish engulfing monthly candle, and this has already happened. However we still have the whole month before us, but I believe that we can expect a bullish engulfing monthly candle close.
We are expected to see a break above the 0.775 monthly key level and probably a continuation which can lead to a few bullish years.
June 12th, 2017
I haven’t updated this chart in quite a while because I was busy with my finals, but as you can see, for the whole duration of this thread the price has been respecting our analysis and our zones.
we saw a strong close above the critical area proceeding to the weekly key level. Now here’s the catch, wee need to break that order block in order to confirm a long term bullish bias. If we break the OB means the institutions have no more shorting positions there and they held the buying positions below.
As you can see we saw a retracement to the first area of continuation, however I believe we can see a retracement back to 0.744 – 0.743 area.
AUDUSD reached our target area on the monthly. This being the case I’m closing this thread now, I hope you had a fun ride with the trend with me and that you have made some profits. I do however believe AUDUSD is prompt to go higher. Here again the before/after screenshot.
I hope these insights will be helpful to you and please feel free to leave a comment below.