Hey everyone, so as promised, I will provide you with a full weekly recap about what was happening in the markets this week.
As you already know our main focus is the USD. So all of our trading decisions are based on that asset class.
We can clearly see the week was bearish on the DXY. What I wanted to share here was that we made a perfect swing low with a bullish chart pattern at the right zone. But frankly, that is too easy, every time you see something too good to be true, it usually is. you can expect a “stop hunt” covered in some news to take out everyone who doesn’t have a clue what they’re doing.
If we were short on the dollar, then normally we go long on euro versus the dollar. so you can see, where the first arrow starts, that was the start of the week and it went as predicted, precisely to the pip! A notice was given a few days earlier that I have a sell limit at 1.880 and as you can see this was the high of the week. That is no problem, the thing that scared most traders out was that bullish rally on Friday! (haha courtesy of Friday the 13th!!) just kidding, it was no surprise, to be honest, I expected the price to reach 1.180 before bullish liquidity release but as you can see it reversed just a few pips higher. So what happened?
In a speech on Friday Trump said he will impose new sanctions on Iran, I will not go into the details what this means for the global economy I will focus on the currency market (if you want me to make a blog post briefing the global economy leave a comment and I will do it) now as you can see market did panicked, a lot of traders thought this is now a bull run it will make higher highs and continue, well this is all part of market manipulation making you think that the trend will continue. A lot of my members on telegram reached out to me asking me what’s going on if euro will continue bullish and if they should close and book whatever profit they have. Normally, I’m not against booking profit (Better than a loss! :)) but I gave them a statement:
as it turned out, I did hit the spot there because the next candle completely engulfed the bullish one and continued bearish.
Now looking from the TA point of view we have a confirmed double top and looking for bearish continuation. If you look at the DXY it did break lower but EURUSD did not break higher which is again another confirmation that bears will be in power for this pair.
Also if you look at the US economy, after the hurricane devastation whole areas have to be rebuilt, the government will have increased spending which means the demand for USD will rise, hence USD will rise.
Our projections for EURUSD are quite clear, from the technical point of view we are expecting a pullback in a macro bullish trend
You can follow my macro analysis on TradingView here.
Thank you for reading it, if you have any question leave a comment, and also don’t forget to follow my telegram channel for more updates! 🙂